State’s Population Growth Will Lag Behind Rest Of U.S.

The Charleston Gazette, April 22, 2005

The population of West Virginia is expected to grow more slowly than any other state in the nation between 1995 and 2025, according to a study released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday.

West Virginia’s population is predicted to increase by just 17,000 people between 1995 and 2025, from 1.828 million to 1.845 million. The Mountain State will rank last, among all states and Washington, D.C., both in total residents gained and rate of population change — 0.9 percent, according to the study. During those years, West Virginia will drop from the nation’s 35th most populous state to the 38th most populous in 2025.

Nationally, the South and West will grow rapidly, as they have during the past 50 years. But the shift in population to those areas may accelerate.

The new report predicts population growth between 2000 and 2030 will be nearly 40 percent in 16 Southern states and 46 percent in 13 Western states. In contrast, nine Northeastern states and 12 Midwestern states will grow by less than 10 percent in that 30-year period.

Between 1995 and 2025, West Virginia is expected to gain 14,000 people through international migration and 105,000 through net internal migration. Those migrations will help offset a natural decline in West Virginia’s population. Between 1995 and 2025, the state is expected to have 555,000 births and 715.000 deaths. That means the state will have the nation’s lowest “natural increase” — or births minus deaths.

During these years, the proportion of the state’s population that is 18 and over will rise from 76.9 percent to 81.1 percent.

All states and Washington, D.C. are projected to show a decline in the proportion of people under 20 years old. But by 2025, West Virginia will drop to the very bottom in the percentage of its people who are younger than 20.

The new Bureau of Census study states, “As the Baby Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) reaches retirement age, the growth of the elderly population (65 and over) is expected to accelerate rapidly.”

In West Virginia, the proportion of people over 65 will grow from 15.3 percent in 1995 to 24.9 percent in 2025, making it the second oldest state in the nation.

All this could have a major economic impact. The state’s “dependency ratio” — the number of youth under 20 and elderly over 65 for every 100 people of working age between 20 and 64 — could jump from 70.7 in 1995 to 85.4 in 2025.

The state’s minority population is expected to rise slightly, from 4.3 percent of all West Virginians to 6.1 percent.

West Virginia’s African-American population will increase by 7,000 people, and the state’s Asian and Pacific Islander population will grow by 11,000 people, according to the study. The state’s Caucasian population will decrease by 16,000 people, the study said.